NFL betting on a player not to score a touchdown.
Key Points
– Adding a player not to score a touchdown bet would enhance NFL betting on player props.
– In NFL betting, a player not to score a touchdown wager is a simple Over/Under bet.
NFL Betting – Player Not to Score a Touchdown
Over the past few years, NFL player props have become extremely popular. Of all the NFL player prop bets, Anytime Touchdowns has taken over the world of sports betting and surpassed all other football props in popularity.
Leading up to Super Bowl LVI, one prominent sportsbook actually took in more bets and more money on Rams WR Cooper Kupp’s Anytime Touchdown prop than on the game’s point spread.
The Anytime Touchdown prop is pretty straightforward. Bettors wager on whether or not a player will score a touchdown in a given game. The only thing is that the player must actually cross into the end zone to score. That means quarterbacks do not get credit for throwing a touchdown pass. The receiver is credited with the touchdown since he crossed into the end zone.
Like most bettors in this category, you have likely never seen the other side of this bet. What if you could wager on a player not to score a touchdown?
The Market Is Coming
It’s not available in most states just yet, but the ability to bet on a player not to score a touchdown is coming. If it does come to your state (or if you can find the bet somewhere offshore), the ability to bet on a player not to score a touchdown will be a big plus for bettors.
Currently, the Anytime Touchdown market has only one side. That means that sportsbooks can essentially charge whatever they want. Online sportsbooks can set their own odds for all Anytime Touchdown bets.
Bettors are always (at least they should be) on the lookout for the best pricing on all of their bets. This market is no different.
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NFL Betting – the No Touchdown Side
As mentioned, with only one side of a bet available a sportsbook can charge whatever it wants. Take the following example.
Former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is an outstanding golfer. Let’s say you look at the opening odds for the U.S. Open. Romo is listed at +10000.
It’s not that far of a stretch since Romo could theoretically be entered into the field by winning a regional qualifying event. He’s good enough to do so.
Now, in reality, Romo’s odds to win the U.S. Open competing against the best golfers in the world are more like a billion to one. However, since there is no other choice, a sportsbook can assign Romo whatever odds it wants. In this case, they chose +10000. The book takes on zero risk and probably won’t take a bet on Romo anyway.
Imagine that there is a market where bettors could wager on golfers not to win the U.S. Open. If Romo is listed at +10000, there is a whole slew of wealthy bettors that would be dropping tons of money on Romo because they know he isn’t going to win. Even with Romo at +50000, there will be action on him.
NFL Betting – No Touchdown Market
That is exactly why bettors would want a market where they could wager on players not to score touchdowns. Sportsbooks cannot simply charge whatever they want as they do in the Anytime TD market.
In the 2021 NFL divisional round playoff game between Cincinnati and Tennessee, there were 23 players listed in the Anytime Touchdown market. According to one betting expert, only two of those 23 players had any real edge or value. The expert’s projected odds were better than those of the sportsbooks in only two cases. Again, that’s the result of not having the other side of the bet.
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How No Touchdown Market Would Work
Should more sportsbooks begin to offer the No Touchdown option, the bet itself would look as follows.
Derrick Henry Over 0.5 TDs -150
Under 0.5 TDs +120
Bettors now have the option of betting on Henry to score an anytime touchdown or to not score a touchdown at all. Without the opposite side of the bet, Henry might have odds of say, -175 to score an anytime touchdown. Without the other side of the bet, remember the sportsbook can price it however it wants.
The No Touchdown wager then becomes an Over/Under bet at 0.5 touchdowns. Bettors will find more favorable odds like those on Henry in the example.
The addition of the other side of the bet forces sportsbooks into better pricing. Offering Henry to score at -250 in this market isn’t going to happen since on the other side of the bet the price would be more like +180. Sportsbooks would get hammered on that bet and would take on too much risk.
If sportsbooks begin to carry this market, it is likely they will not allow parlays. Most sportsbooks allow Anytime Touchdown scorer bets to be parlayed. Books likely wouldn’t want to take on the risk of No Touchdown bets and the higher parlay odds. Sportsbook would need time to evaluate the market before offering parlays in this category.
